[Traduzione] Three in the Key: Future of the Dinosaur
Inviato: 08/05/2007, 18:25
Qualche anima pia...cercasi
[/i]Three in the Key: Future of the Dinosaur
di Tim Chisholm
For all of the bad the Raptors gave their fans to chew on in the last couple of weeks, Friday night's game six doesn't qualify.
For the first time in all the playoffs, the Raptors looked united and focused as a group like they had so often during the regular season, prepared to do what they had to do to push the series to seven games. Unfortunately, the final ten seconds of the game sealed their fates, twice at the hands of Richard Jefferson, and the Playoffs came to an end for the Toronto Raptors.
And with that the storybook 2006-2007 season came to a close.
Which means Saturday was the unofficial start of the 2007-2008 season for the Toronto Raptors, and there are several necessary preparations to make before the season start becomes official in October.
First off, and most pressing, is the situation involving head coach Sam Mitchell. Had the season ended in game five in Toronto, there would have been serious questions about whether or not Mitchell was the long-term solution for the Raptors. While I maintain that it can be a colossal gamble to replace a head coach after a season where the team overachieved, the apparent total lack of preparation by the Raptors for games one through four left time enough to pause and wonder about that stance since the team is looking for a playoff coach now, not just a regular season guy.
Games five and six, though, proved that Mitchell at least had the wherewithal to make adjustments that forced New Jersey into some tight corners late in the series. Starting Andrea Bargnani and Morris Peterson proved to be a reasonable reaction to try and open up the floor for Bosh and T.J. Ford, and shifting the defensive focus away from the man and into the passing lanes slowed the pace significantly for the Nets, and helped keep the Raptors from continually losing their man on defense. One has to remember, I suppose, that Mitchell is just as much a rookie as a playoff coach as Bosh (and his deer-in-the-headlights performance) was a player. If Bosh is to be afforded some measure of leniency for her performance in the playoffs, shouldn't the same leniency be afforded the coach?
Will that be enough, though? President and GM Bryan Colangelo has played his cards very close to his chest when it comes to discussing the future of Mitchell as head coach, which has led to much speculation that he is still gunning for Phoenix assistant Marc Iavaroni to come in and lead the team next season.
A more sensible reaction to this tactic, however, may simply be that Colangelo doesn't want to gush about Mitchell's achievements this year and essentially drive up his asking price this summer. Re-signing Mitchell, who has improved every year as a head coach and has led his guys to both individual and team success, makes far more sense than bringing in an unknown commodity that is known first and foremost as a defensive coach to a team that's biggest strength is it's offensive weaponry.
In all likelihood Iavaroni wouldn't even be able to come in and interview for weeks (whenever the Suns are eliminated from the Playoffs), and by that time Mitchell could be seduced by the plethora of other teams rumored to be clamoring for his services. If that were to happen, no matter what Iavaroni says or does in an interview with the team, he'd know they were backed into a corner and more or less had to hire him to avoid the embarrassment of losing their Coach of the Year to another team and then having to find his replacement from the same crop being examined by Memphis, Seattle and Orlando. Is that eventuality really worth the risk? Probably not, and it says here Mitchell will be trolling the sidelines of the ACC for some time to come.
The next big issue facing the team is player evaluations. Not in terms of grading their season but in terms of assessing their value to the club as a player and as a commodity. Outside of T.J. Ford, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh, no player on this team is completely untouchable. Bryan Colangelo has a history of making bold moves if he thinks it will make his team better. Armed with only the mid-level exception and a possible sign-and-trade candidate in Morris Peterson going into the off-season, it's a safe bet at least one rotation player won't be returning to the Raptors. That reality becomes especially true when one considers that this team still has several holes it needs to fill as it hopes to reach the upper-echelons of the Eastern Conference.
The biggest need, according to Colangelo himself, is a starting small forward. That small forward has to be able to score (ideally be able to create their own shot), rebound and defend. The best free agent that fits that criteria is Charlotte's Gerald Wallace, but he finished the season about as strong as any player going into free agency, so he's likely far out of the Raptors price range now. With him off the table, it's now up for Colangelo to decide whether or not he sees enough potential in a lesser-known free agent or if he looks to make a trade to fill this hole.
If he chooses free agency, he'll be looking at guys like Matt Barnes, Michael Pietrus, Quentin Ross, Luke Walton, James Posey and Desmond Mason. In one way or another each of these players would be a reach to start for the Raptors, with the exception of Posey, who simply won't be a target of Colangelo because of his affinity towards character guys. While each of those other guys possess one or two of the qualities the Raptors need from their small forward spot, none really run the gamut, at least not enough to be a player that can be expected to help the Raptors take the next step next season.
So, if Colangelo doesn't see anything he likes here, he'll be forced to trade. That's where things can get interesting. While the Raptors aren't armed to the teeth with trade bait, they do have one thing that is severely rare in either the draft or in free agency: a point guard.
Now, of course he'd be loathe to trade away Jose Calderon given all that he has meant to the team this year, but two factors play into this possibility. One; because of the dearth of available point guards this summer, Calderon may be able to fetch more than his value in a trade - which is usually the best time to trade a player - and two; the team has committed (at least financially) to T.J. Ford as their number one point guard, and he has to learn to play without a safety net so he can see directly how costly his mistakes can be on the court when they don't have a player like Calderon to come into the game to clean them up.
Of course, Calderon has to learn the same thing, but less people know that because he was the backup this year. While Ford is still far from being the perfect point guard, Jose's free agent status next summer means the team has to decide quickly who they're throwing their weight behind, and since right now Ford looks to be the better long-term solution, Calderon could land the Raptors a much-needed piece for the starting lineup.
So, since I've introduced this possibility, let's continue down this road briefly before we move on. Should Calderon be available in a search for a small forward, that small forward better be able to fill in each and every one of the criteria addressed above, as well as, ideally, show room for growth. So here are three possibilities:
Marvin Williams or Josh Smith of the Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks need a distributing point guard in the worst way, and a trade is the only shot this team has at landing one (unless they severely overpay Steve Blake in free agency). While the team would hate to part with either of these players, they know that neither one can be a full-time power forward in the East and that one day a decision will have to be made between them as a small forward. While either would be a great fit for the Raptors on paper, Smith has character baggage where Williams doesn't, and Williams is a better scorer. Sure this trade is a long shot, but it's a possibility because Atlanta needs to start cashing in on this youth before they start losing it in free agency.
Boris Diaw of the Phoenix Suns
This one isn't as far of a stretch as one might think. Diaw is a fine player for the Suns, but a $9 million player off the bench doesn't exactly set owner Robert Sarver's world on fire. Diaw made a lot of sense on this team when Stoudemire was out, but the two simply don't work together in the starting five. It would likely take Pheonix taking on the two remaining years of Rasho Nesterovic's contract (which could break the deal), but this trade works for both teams on paper. The Suns get their long-coveted playmaker to back-up Steve Nash and allows the team the option to start Leandro Barbosa if it wanted, and the Raptors wouldn't need a playmaker as the backup point because the offense could run through Diaw and the backup for T.J. could be more of a shooter or finisher like Charlie Bell or even Juan Dixon. It would at least alleviate the problem for the Raptors of trying to find a new backup point guard should Calderon get traded.
Corey Maggette of the L.A. Clippers
Of the three, this deal is the most likely. The Clippers have gone from rich to poor at the point guard slot in about six months since Sam Cassell finally saw age catch up with him and Shaun Livingston had a horrific knee injury that puts his career in jeopardy. This team, as built, desperately needs production for the point guard spot to create for their scorers, and Maggette may be the piece they have to part with to get it. To get this deal done the Raptors would have to part with another piece both to absorb Maggette's contract and to convince Clipper GM Elgin Baylor to pull the trigger, and so it would be up to Colangelo to decide whether or not that was a worthwhile sacrifice for the Raptors future.
There are other possibilities out there, of course, like trying to lure restricted free agent Andres Nocioni away from Chicago or keeping Calderon and making a play for Hakim Warrick of Memphis, but at least this gives us an idea of how wide open Colangelo's options are. In fact, Colangelo's solutions are usually so unexpected it's a safe bet that none of these ideas are even close to what will actually go down this summer.
The last detail to be ironed out before training camp is what to do about the draft. As of today, the Raptors have zero picks in the 2007 draft. Colangelo has stated recently that he'll be in the market for a draft pick in what is being described as the deepest drafts in years, but how badly he wants one still remains to be seen. This Raptor team has plenty of young talent to work with as it is with Bosh, Bargnani and Ford (don't expect to see Joey Graham on that list come October), so while a draft pick is always a nice option, perhaps this is the first time in a long time the Raptors wont be crestfallen should a rookie not dot their roster next season.
Without a doubt there will be plenty more to discuss as the upcoming season approaches, but maybe the best thing to do for now is be thankful that Canada has a basketball team worth celebrating after a season spent defying the odds and reminding the world that Canada still has a place on the basketball map.